Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty. increased its forecast for Asian power-station coal prices in the 2011 financial year, citing export constraints in Australia, the biggest supplier of the fuel, and Indonesia.
The estimate for benchmark coal burned by Japanese utilities in the year ending March 31, 2011, was raised to $80 a metric ton from $75, Goldman analysts wrote in a note to clients dated yesterday. UBS AG increased its 2010 forecast to $90 from $80 on July 6.
¡°Availability from Australia and Indonesia is limited by port, rail constraints and producers in both countries have already contracted much of their 2009 production due to strong demand from China,¡± Goldman analysts led by Melbourne-based Malcolm Southwood said in the note.
Bottlenecks at Australian ports, heavy rain in Indonesia and increased imports by China, which burns the fuel for about 80 percent of its electricity, reduced supplies to Asian customers in 2007 and drove up prices. Limitations on exports may result in a tighter market later this year, Goldman said.
Thermal coal supplies may also come under pressure as some miners switch to providing coking coal used by steelmakers in response to higher prices for this product, Goldman said.
Power-station coal prices at Australia¡¯s Newcastle port, an Asian benchmark, climbed 6.5 percent to $73.13 a ton in the week ended July 3, according to the globalCOAL NEWC Index.