Liquefied natural gas ventures led by
Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Chevron Corp. and others are delaying decisions on investments, potentially meaning no new projects may be approved this year, Wood Mackenzie Consultants Ltd. said.
Projects in Nigeria, Algeria, Australia and elsewhere, with as much as 95 million metric tons a year of capacity, were potentially set for approval in 2008. It's now possible none of these will reach a final investment decision this year, said Frank Harris, global head of LNG at the Edinburgh-based firm.
The rate of project approvals last year also missed forecasts, adding to concern that supply will be insufficient to meet rising demand. Global consumption of LNG, gas chilled to liquid form for transportation by tanker, is set to increase 10 percent a year through 2015, more than five times the estimated gain in crude oil demand, Citigroup Inc. said in April.
``It looks pretty bleak for this year; it's not an encouraging picture,'' Harris said yesterday in a telephone interview. ``It's now looking quite unlikely there's going to be anything this year'' on project approvals, he said.
Delays in investment decisions have been caused by various factors, including renegotiations with governments, rising construction costs and disputes between partners.
The Chevron-led Angola LNG project was the last to be approved for development in December 2007. That followed Woodside Petroleum Ltd.'s A$12 billion ($11.4 billion) Pluto LNG project in Western Australia in July and took the capacity approved for construction last year to 10 million tons a year. Wood Mackenzie forecast in December 2006 that as much as 90 million tons a year of projects could be approved in 2007.
Global trade in LNG jumped 7.3 percent last year to about 165 million tons, according to Paris-based Cedigaz, a group of 195 oil and gas companies in 40 nations.
`Tight' Market
Delays in committing to supply projects, combined with rising demand, mean the LNG market will stay ``tight'' until 2015 and possibly beyond, Woodside Chief Executive Officer Don Voelte said last month. Projects may take four or five years to start production after being approved for construction.
Projects that no longer look likely to reach a final investment decision this year include Sonatrach's Gassi Touil project in Algeria, the Chevron-led Gorgon venture in Australia and an expansion of Equatorial Guinea's project, Harris said.
Only one of three Nigerian projects, Train 7 of Nigeria LNG, may be approved this year and even that is in doubt, he said. LNG projects in Nigeria are being delayed as the government renegotiates terms for gas-export agreements with oil and gas companies to ensure supplies for the domestic market.
Lost Momentum
Both Liquid Niugini Gas Ltd.'s project in Papua New Guinea and the Sulawesi project in Indonesia, involving PT Medco Energi Internasional and Mitsubishi Corp., appear to have ``lost momentum,'' Harris said. The Equatorial Guinea expansion involves using some gas from Nigeria so probably won't go ahead until the Nigerian discussions are resolved, he said.
Woodside's Voelte said May 1 the company may miss its end- 2008 target for approving an expansion of Pluto while it weighs the best option for gas supply.
Woodside's Pluto expansion plans and Liquid Niugini Gas's project both depend on proving sufficient gas reserves, while Chevron's Gorgon venture is delaying committing to construction as it works to improve the economics of the project after a surge in construction costs.
Gazprom OAO in February canceled plans for the Baltic LNG project to concentrate on its Shtokman field in the Arctic Ocean and the Nord Stream pipeline to Germany. In Algeria, a dispute with venture partners is delaying Sonatrach's project.
Other planned projects such as Inpex Holdings Inc.'s Ichthys venture in Australia have already slipped into 2009, Harris said.