Romania's
inflation rate probably rose to the highest since 2005 in June as last year's drought pushed up food prices and global fuel costs increased, a survey showed.
Inflation accelerated to 8.7 percent from 8.5 percent in May, according to the median estimate of 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The National Statistics Institute will publish the data tomorrow at 10 a.m.
``The annual rate of inflation will remain at a high level both in June and July,'' Ionut Dumitru, head of research at Raiffeisen Bank Romania, said in an e-mailed note. ``The rate of inflation should start to decrease in August. We expect favorable developments in food prices in coming months.''
A drought last year destroyed a third of Romania's crops, driving up food prices. Inflation climbed from a post-communist low of 3.7 percent in March 2007 to 8.6 percent in April 2008, prompting the central bank to raise the main interest rate at every policy meeting since October to 10 percent, the European Union's highest.
Price increases for natural gas, electricity, cigarette taxes, taxi fares and other items will send the inflation rate to as high as 9.7 percent this month, analysts at Banca Comerciala Romania SA forecast on July 7.
Romanian regulators raised gas prices by 12.5 percent and electricity prices by 5.3 percent effective on July 1. The government also increased its tax on tobacco to 50 euros ($78) per 1,000 cigarettes from 41.5 euros.
Farm output will probably double this year from last year, the government said on May 14. Agriculture accounted for 9.4 percent of all investment in the first quarter, compared with 1.5 percent a year earlier, helping boost planting.
BCR analysts Lucian Anghel and Eugen Sinca predicted consumer price growth will slow in August and September, heading off any further interest rate increases this year. The central bank next meets on July 31 to consider a rate move.