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Oil Trades Around $109 as Investors Seek Commodities Returns
in-en.com  2008-4-8 17:25:40  

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Crude oil traded around $109 a barrel after jumping more than $2 in New York yesterday as investors looked to commodity markets for higher returns.

The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index gained 1.3 percent to 1470.86 yesterday and is up 32 percent from a year ago. Commodities investments rose more than 20 percent in the first quarter, as investors sought a buffer against rising inflation and a weaker dollar, Citigroup Inc. said.

``There are no signs yet of prices cracking,'' said Robert Montefusco, a broker at Sucden (U.K.) Ltd. in London. ``The funds are pouring in and technically, things look strong. Prices have held above $100 a barrel quite well.''

Crude oil for May delivery was at $109.16 a barrel, up 7 cents, at 9:01 a.m. London time in after-hours trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are up about 77 percent from a year ago. Yesterday, futures rose $2.86, or 2.7 percent, to settle at $109.09 a barrel, the highest close since March 18.

``Investment flows have been a factor in the volatility but I can't believe the new investment has taken us to $100 oil,'' said Jonathan Kornafel, a director for Asia at Hudson Capital Energy in Singapore. ``The fundamentals are what have gotten us here.''

Worldwide investments in commodities rose to $400 billion in the first three months of this year, Citigroup analysts Alan Heap and Alex Tonks said yesterday in a note to clients.

Investments in commodity indexes climbed $40 billion in the first three months of the year to $185 billion, a larger gain than the whole of 2007, said Heap and Tonks.

Dollar Devaluation

Gold, platinum, wheat and soybeans were pushed to records in March as the dollar dropped. The Federal Reserve has cut U.S. interest rates six times since September, sending the dollar to an all-time low against the euro.

``Because of the devaluation of the dollar, people are trying to shift to other asset classes,'' Hirofumi Kawachi, a senior energy analyst at Mizuho Investors Securities Co. in Tokyo, said by telephone.

Brent crude for May settlement was down 23 cents at $106.91 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract rose $2.24, or 2.1 percent, to settle at $107.14 a barrel yesterday, the highest close since March 14.

U.S. crude oil supplies probably climbed last week because of higher imports and reduced refinery operations amid low processing profits.

Crude oil inventories advanced 2.5 million barrels in the week ended April 4 from 319.2 million barrels, according to the median of responses by 10 analysts before this week's Energy Department report on April 9.

Soft Margins

Gasoline inventories probably dropped 2.75 million barrels from 224.7 million barrels the week before, according to the median of responses. Supplies of distillate fuels, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, fell 1.5 million barrels from 109.7 million the prior week, according to the survey.

Refineries may have operated at 83 percent of their capacity, up 0.6 percentage point, the survey showed. The price difference between the Nymex gasoline contract and crude oil futures, a measure of refinery profitability called the crack margin, is at $7.82 a barrel, 68 percent less than a year ago.

``Gasoline should be building ahead of the driving season but refiners aren't producing the fuel right now because the crack margin is so soft,'' Kornafel said. ``More imports mean that we'll see more builds of crude.''

 


 
Author:Bloomberg  From:Bloomberg  Edit:nicole
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