Crude oil traded little changed above $70 a barrel in New York on speculation global demand for fuels will rebound as economies emerge from recession.
Oil has risen several times above $72 a barrel in the past week as gains in the equity market raised optimism for a recovery. The Standard & Poor¡¯s 500 Index slipped from a 10- month high yesterday after four weeks of increases that left the index at the highest level relative to earnings since December 2004. China¡¯s crude oil imports in July rose to a record 19.6 million metric tons.
¡°When we¡¯ve seen the economic optimism over the last two weeks can¡¯t push it through $73.50, we start to think that perhaps supply and demand at the moment are relatively equal,¡± Jonathan Barratt, managing director of Commodity Broking Services Pty in Sydney, said in a Bloomberg Television interview.
Crude oil for September delivery traded at $70.71 a barrel, up 11 cents on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 1:55 p.m. in Singapore. The contract fell 33 cents, or 0.5 percent, to settle at $70.60 yesterday. Prices have climbed 59 percent so far this year.
New York oil futures have doubled since February as the decline in the dollar made commodities more attractive and rising equity markets buoyed investor confidence. Oil touched an eight-month high of $73.38 a barrel on June 30.
Asian shares rose for a second day on positive corporate earnings results and brokerage upgrades. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up 0.5 percent at 112.34 at 2:44 p.m. in Tokyo, having risen 59 percent from a five-year low March 9 as traders bet on an economic recovery.
The dollar traded at $1.4138 against the euro at 1:55 p.m. in Singapore, from $1.4140 in New York.
¡°The market may seem to be taking the lead from elsewhere but there¡¯s also a lot of interest from traders who see oil doing better than equities,¡± said Ben Westmore, an energy and minerals economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne. ¡°They¡¯re the ones buying on the dips.¡±
Record Volume
China, which accounts for about 45 percent of Asia¡¯s oil consumption, bought a record volume of oil in July to meet rising demand.
Oil imports jumped 18 percent to the equivalent of 4.6 million barrels a day, the Beijing-based customs said on its Web site today.
Singapore¡¯s economy expanded more than initially estimated last quarter. Gross domestic product in Asia¡¯s biggest oil- trading center gained an annualized 20.7 percent last quarter from the previous three months, after shrinking a revised 12.2 percent between January and March, the trade ministry said in a statement today.
Oil yesterday rebounded from technical support at $70 a barrel after reaching an intraday low of $70.09. Buy orders tend to cluster around chart-based support levels.
¡°The traders tried to push the market below the $70 handle and found a lot of buying there,¡± said James Cordier, a portfolio manager at OptionSellers.com in Tampa, Florida.
Prices ¡°Not Bad¡±
The president of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said Aug. 9 he was content with current prices, signaling the 12-member group may keep quotas unchanged when it meets next month.
Crude oil prices around $70 are ¡°not bad¡± and are necessary to maintain investment, Jose Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos, who is also Angola¡¯s petroleum minister, told reporters in Luanda. OPEC, which pumps 40 percent of the world¡¯s oil, is scheduled to review output policy at a meeting Sept. 9.
The OPEC Secretariat in Vienna will release its monthly report today.
Brent crude oil for September yesterday fell 9 cents, or 0.1 percent, to settle at $73.50 a barrel and traded flat at 1:39 p.m. in Singapore.
U.S. oil inventories probably rose 1 million barrels last week as traders took advantage of a so-called contango price structure that offers an incentive to store supplies, a Bloomberg survey of nine analysts showed before a weekly report tomorrow. It would be the third consecutive gain.
Gasoline stockpiles probably dropped 1.3 million barrels last week, according to the survey.
The Energy Department will put out its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook today, before its Weekly Petroleum Status Report tomorrow